Safe boundaries for humanity
A
recent article in the international journal Nature describes the "Safe
planetary boundaries" that humanity should stay within to avoid
conditions that are not acceptable for the continued well being of
humanity.
The human impact has become global, long-lasting, and potentially
irreversible, and has become the major driving force on earth system
processes such as water and nutrient cyles, stability of ecosystems, or
global climate. The current era is therefore also referred to as "Anthropocene".
The Anthropocene could be beneficial for humanity, if we were to
stay within safe boundaries that will ensure that humans can develop
for many centuries to come. Unfortunately, we have already transgressed
several boundaries, endangering the future of humanity if we do not
return into the safe zone as quickly as possible.
This is the general message from a paper that was recently published in the highly renowned international journal Nature.
In this paper, Rockström and coauthors identified nine planetary boundaries that humanity should not transgress. These include:
climate change, stratospheric ozone, land use change, freshwater use,
biological diversity, ocean acidification, nitrogen and phosphorus
inputs to the biosphere and oceans, aerosol loading and chemical
pollution.
According to their estimates, humanity has
already transgressed three of these boundaries: climate change, loss of
biodiversity, and nitrogen input into the biosphere. But of course it is extremely difficult to determine the concrete boundary conditions for these planetary systems,
and the paper does not suggest that the concrete boundary conditins
outlined are set in stone. Instead, the authors offer a starting point
for further research and discussion. What hat becomes very clear is
that humanity is in very severe trouble if we do not act immediately,
because interactions among various systems might make single systems
more vulnerable than expected.
One boundary that we have transgressed
already is quite certain, climate change. With the current 387 ppm we
have already passed the CO2 concentration that is considered safe: 350
ppm. For the first time scientists stated clearly that we cannot stay
below a global temperature increase of two degrees Celsius if the
global CO2 concentration stays above 350 ppm for a prolonged period of
time. Clearly, it is time to be done with half measures and act
according to the urgent call that scientists give us. Otherwise the
Anthropocene will be referred to as The Age of Stupid.
We have long known that there are limits to growth.
But the paper by Rockström and coauthors describe these limits not as
oppressing borders to limit our potentials. Instead, the authors give
us a new, very important perspective: that of possibilities to grow, as
long as we stay within safe boundaries. By defining a safe space for
human societies to live in, they give us a new perspective on our
potentials. Whereas many people still view the necessity of change
towards a new, carbon-neutral and truly sustainable economy as a limit
to their freedom, this paper will help develope a new thought process:
that of great possibilities of staying free and safe within our limits.
If we accept this basic fact, then changes might be much easier to
accomplish.
For a detailed outline on the safe boundaries, please visit the Stockholm Resilience Center and Nature.
Maiken Winter